Metrics versus atmospherics

As the political world reacts to the 'stunning' upset of Scott Brown's senate election in Massachusetts the media is full of talking heads saying "the people have spoken" and this marks the turn around point for Republicans. They say it is the beginning of the end for the Obama presidency. But on closer inspection Scott Brown won his senate seat with a majority of little more than 100,000 votes. That equates to 1.7% of the Massachusetts population or 0.04% of the US population. Does such a marginal change in the political landscape merit such hype?

It is hard to imagine in business any major conclusion being drawn, or a major strategic decision being made, based on such fine margins. This election result may be part of something bigger in terms of changes in US politics or it may be a very narrow, if unexpected, blip. It is hard to draw some of the conclusions being offered by political experts on both sides of the aisle based simply on the facts.

So who is challenging the idea of a change in momentum? Certainly not the media who seem happy to perpetuate a theme of a troubled incumbent government. And most politicians seem unable to bring the facts to bear, accepting the subtext either because it suits them or because they seem ill-equipped to make any arguments to the contrary. Is it because in politics, unlike business, the definition of success is less clear? Apart from the personal success of winning an election, what defines the broader success of local office or government? Full employment? An average per capita income increase? Better school scores? Lower environmental waste? In business, the definition of success is usually less ambiguous. Most often it is to make money. Most disputes around strategy or policy can usually be resolved by which approach provides a better return on investment. You can also track past performance and set future targets that corporate strategy and objectives can be set around. This may not always be the right approach but at least it is straightforward.

At the end of the day the democratic party still holds a 59% majority in the senate, greater than any government in decades. Politicians would be better served to focus more on the metrics of the defeat, than the less tangible atmospherics.